2022 Post-Federal Election Pendulum – Antony Green's Election Blog (2023)

With 16 members elected to the crossbench in the new House of Representatives, drawing up a new electoral pendulum based on the 2022 Federal election result strains the traditionally used two-sided format.

However, I’ve gone with the traditional format with the non-major party seats separated bottom right on the opposition side of the pendulum. However, the expanded size of the crossbench means this group of seats deserves more attention than its bottom of the table position suggests.

(Video) Antony Green looks at where the election will be won | ABC News

Inside this post I provide a post-election pendulum for the House of Representatives, along with some general comments on the overall result.

General Comments on the Results

Before moving on to the new electoral pendulum, I thought it worthwhile making some general comments.

(Video) Antony Green predicts Coalition victory

  • The nearly complete two-party preferred count appears to be Labor 52.1% Coalition 47.9%, a swing of 3.6%. This is roughly the swing that Labor needed to win based on the pre-election pendulum. The two-party result hides the importance of both the Greens and Independents to the election outcome, the success of both being responsible for the Coalition doing much worse in seat terms (58) than you would expect from a 47.9% two-party preferred vote.
  • There were 84 seats that recorded Labor two-party preferred majorities against 67 with Coalition two-party preferred majorities.
  • On first preferences the Coalition polled 35.7%, Labor 32.6%, at 68.3% the lowest combined vote for the major parties since two-party politics became the norm in 1910.
  • There were 27 seats that did not finish as traditional two-party contests, 20 that recorded Coalition majorities on the alternative two-party preferred count and seven for Labor.
  • Only 15 of the 151 electorates were won by candidates recording a majority on first preference votes, eight Labor, four Liberal, two National and one LNP. 136 electorates required some or all preferences to be distributed before the winning candidate achieved a majority of the vote. It is by far the highest number of seats where preference distributions were required.
  • Labor won 77 seats, the Coalition 58, Independents 10, Greens four, one Katter’s Australian Party and one Centre Alliance.
  • There were 16 seats won by trailing candidates. Seven were won by Labor (Bennelong, Boothby, Gilmore, Higgins, Lyons, Robertson, Tangney), seven by Independents (Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Wentworth), and two by the Greens (Brisbane from 3rd place and Ryan).
  • If winners were declared based on first preference simple majority leaders, the Coalition would have won 74 seats and Labor 70 with two Greens, three Independents and one each for Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. Of course, had the election been fought under simple majority rules, it is likely that many voters for third parties might have voted differently knowing they did not have the option of preferences.
  • The results after preferences again highlight how much the accrued political advantage of preferential voting has shifted from the Coalition to Labor. Preferential voting was introduced in 1917 to allow electoral co-operation between competing non-Labor parties. Until 1990 it worked consistently in favour of the non-Labor parties. But the 2022 result is the latest to highlight that since 1990 preferential voting has worked overwhelmingly in favour of Labor.
  • Queensland was the only state to record a Coalition two-party preferred majority with 54.0%. The state also saw the largest swing to Labor, 4.4%, but Labor lost one seat to the Greens (Griffith) along with two LNP seats that recorded Labor two-party majorities in 2022 (Brisbane, Ryan). The swing to Labor was 4.9% in South-east Queensland and 3.3% in the rest of the state.
  • Tasmania was the only state to record a swing to the Coalition, a 1.6% swing though no seats changed hands and Labor’s recorded a two-party majority with 54.3%.
  • The swings in other states, noting that counting continues in some seats, were 3.2% to Labor in NSW, 1.5% in Victoria, a huge 10.5% in Western Australia, 3.3% in South Australia, 5.3% in the ACT and 1.3% in the Northern Territory.
  • In Victoria, the state swing hides a wide variety of results. Labor recorded large swings in its favour in key seats it needed to retain or gain, but suffered significant swings against it in a string of its own safe seats in northern and western Melbourne.
  • The Liberal party suffered a massive rejection in Western Australia, losing Swan, Hasluck, Pearce and Tangney to Labor on double digit swings, as well as Curtin to Independent Kate Chaney. Of the 15 seats that recorded the largest swing to Labor, 12 were in Western Australia. The result in Western Australia was the difference between minority and majority government for Labor Party.
  • Support for the Greens rose substantially from 10.5% to 12.3%, the party gaining an extra 300,000 votes in the lower house. This is a vastly greater number than reported by Peter Hartcher in the Sydney Morning Herald on 28 May. In the same article Hartcher stated that Labor had lost 600,000 votes, but the final results show Labor had roughly an unchanged number of votes, though in percentage terms Labor’s vote fell 0.8%.
  • Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation rose from 3.1% to 5.0%, but largely due to a near trebling of the number of seats the party contested. In the seats One Nation did not contest in 2019 the party polled 4.0%. In the seats it contested at both elections, the party’s support fell from 8.0% to 6.4%. After Labor, the Coalition and the Greens, One Nation remains the nation’s fourth largest party.

The seats changing party (with margin) were –

  • Labor gains from Coalition (10) – Chisholm VIC (0.5), Boothby SA (1.4), Higgins VIC (2.6), Reid NSW (3.2), Swan WA (3.2), Robertson NSW (4.2), Pearce WA (5.2), Hasluck WA (5.9), Bennelong NSW (6.9), Tangney WA (9.5)
  • Green gains from Coalition (2) – Brisbane QLD (4.9), Ryan QLD (6.0)
  • Green gain from Labor (1) – Griffith QLD (2.9)
  • Independent gain from Labor (1) – Fowler NSW (14.0)
  • Independent gain from Coalition (6) – Wentworth NSW (1.3), Kooyong VIC (6.4), Goldstein VIC (7.8), North Sydney NSW (9.3), Mackellar NSW (13.2), Curtin WA (13.9) (WA)
  • The Coalition lost 18 seats, by state six in NSW, four in Victoria, two in Queensland, five in Western Australia and one in South Australia.

New Electoral Pendulum

The pendulum below sets out the new seats in margin order, the most marginal seats at the top of each list, the safest at the bottom. Labor (Government) seats are shown in the left hand column, Coalition seats at the top of the right-hand column. Independents, Greens and other parties are listed at the bottom of the right hand column, again in ascending margin order.

(Video) NSW Election Wrap - Up with Antony Green

In 124 electorates the margins are shown in traditional two-party format, either Labor versus Coalition or Coalition versus Labor. The other 27 electorates are shown with a margin for the winning party and the opposing party shown in brackets. (e.g Grayndler is shown with (v GRN) after the name and state indicating a Labor versus Greens margin.) Seats in bold changed party status at the election.

Based on the margins, a swing of around 1% would deprive the Albanese government of its majority.

(Video) ELECTION RESULTS IN FULL: Watch every moment of the 2022 Australian Federal Election on ABC News

However, it is almost impossible to calculate a swing needed for the Coalition to return to office. The Coalition needs 18 seats, which assuming all crossbench members are re-elected, means a swing of 6.3%. A gain of 10 seats from Labor on a uniform swing of 3.3% would give the Coalition more seats than Labor though still well short of a majority.

But there are nine crossbench seats on margins under 5%. This includes the six seats the Coaliyion lost to Independents, as well as two seats the Coalition lost to the Greens. Every seat the Coalition wins back from the crossbench is one fewer seats the Coalition needs to win from Labor.

(Video) Australian election 2022: how the night and results unfolded with Amy Remeikis

If you follow this link, I’ve also prepared a simpler pdf version that you can print on two-sides of an A4 page.

2022 Post-Federal Election Pendulum
Labor Seats (77)Coalition Seats (58)
ALP 0.2Gilmore NSWLIB 0.2Deakin VIC
ALP 0.9Lyons TASLIB 0.5Sturt SA
ALP 0.9Lingiari NTLIB 0.7Moore WA
ALP 1.0Bennelong NSWLIB 0.7Menzies VIC
ALP 2.1Higgins VICLIB 1.4Bass TAS
ALP 2.3Robertson NSWLIB 1.5Casey VIC
ALP 2.4Tangney WALIB 1.7Dickson QLD
ALP 3.3Boothby SANAT 2.3Cowper NSW (v IND)
ALP 3.3McEwen VICLIB 2.8Aston VIC
ALP 3.3Paterson NSWLIB 2.9Monash VIC
ALP 4.0Hunter NSWLIB 3.1Longman QLD
ALP 4.6Parramatta NSWLIB 3.2Banks NSW
ALP 5.2Reid NSWLIB 3.4Bonner QLD
ALP 5.2Blair QLDLIB 3.4Leichhardt QLD
ALP 5.8Shortland NSWLIB 3.6Canning WA
ALP 5.8Werriwa NSWNAT 3.8Nicholls VIC (v IND)
ALP 6.0Hasluck WANAT 3.8Flynn QLD
ALP 6.3Dunkley VICLIB 3.9Wannon VIC (v IND)
ALP 6.4Chisholm VICLIB 4.2Forde QLD
ALP 6.5Dobell NSWLIB 4.2Bradfield NSW (v IND)
ALP 6.6Bruce VICLIB 4.3Durack WA
ALP 6.9Isaacs VICLIB 4.3Forrest WA
ALP 7.1Holt VICLIB 4.4Petrie QLD
ALP 7.6Corangamite VICLIB 5.5Bowman QLD
ALP 7.6Hawke VICLIB 6.3Lindsay NSW
ALP 7.8Macquarie NSWNAT 6.6Capricornia QLD
ALP 7.8Richmond NSWLIB 6.7Flinders VIC
ALP 8.2Eden-Monaro NSWLIB 6.9Groom QLD (v IND)
ALP 8.5Macarthur NSWLIB 7.0O’Connor WA
ALP 8.6Wills VIC (v GRN)LIB 7.0Hughes NSW
ALP 8.7Cooper VIC (v GRN)LIB 7.7Hume NSW
ALP 8.8Swan WALIB 8.0Braddon TAS
ALP 8.9Hindmarsh SALIB 8.7Fisher QLD
ALP 9.0Pearce WALIB 8.7La Trobe VIC
ALP 9.1Rankin QLDLIB 9.0Fairfax QLD
ALP 9.1Moreton QLDLIB 9.3McPherson QLD
ALP 9.4Solomon NTNAT 9.7Calare NSW (v IND)
ALP 9.5McMahon NSWLIB 9.8Berowra NSW
ALP 10.0Gorton VICLIB 10.1Grey SA
ALP 10.1Whitlam NSWNAT 10.1Hinkler QLD
ALP 10.5Lilley QLDNAT 10.4Dawson QLD
ALP 10.8Makin SALIB 10.6Fadden QLD
ALP 10.8Cowan WALIB 10.7Mitchell NSW
ALP 11.5Greenway NSWNAT 10.7Page NSW
ALP 11.5Gellibrand VICLIB 10.9Wright QLD
ALP 11.6Oxley QLDLIB 11.2Moncrieff QLD
ALP 11.9Adelaide SANAT 11.3Wide Bay QLD
ALP 12.1Bendigo VICLIB 11.8Herbert QLD
ALP 12.2Canberra ACT (v GRN)LIB 12.4Cook NSW
ALP 12.2Macnamara VICNAT 13.8Lyne NSW
ALP 12.3Jagajaga VICNAT 14.8Riverina NSW
ALP 12.4Calwell VICLIB 16.4Farrer NSW
ALP 12.4Maribyrnong VICNAT 16.5New England NSW
ALP 12.8Lalor VICLIB 16.6Barker SA
ALP 12.8Corio VICNAT 17.8Parkes NSW
ALP 12.9Spence SANAT 19.0Mallee VIC
ALP 12.9Bean ACTNAT 20.6Gippsland VIC
ALP 13.0Ballarat VICNAT 22.1Maranoa QLD
ALP 13.5Chifley NSW
ALP 13.7Franklin TASOthers (16)
ALP 14.3Hotham VICMargin 0.0Electorate
ALP 14.5Kingsford Smith NSWIND 1.3Curtin WA (v LIB)
ALP 14.7Cunningham NSWIND 1.6Fowler NSW (v ALP)
ALP 14.8Perth WAIND 2.5Mackellar NSW (v LIB)
ALP 14.9Blaxland NSWGRN 2.6Ryan QLD (v LIB)
ALP 15.1Watson NSWIND 2.9Goldstein VIC (v LIB)
ALP 15.2Burt WAIND 2.9North Sydney NSW (v LIB)
ALP 15.5Barton NSWIND 2.9Kooyong VIC (v LIB)
ALP 15.6Scullin VICGRN 3.7Brisbane QLD (v LIB)
ALP 15.7Fenner ACTIND 4.2Wentworth NSW (v LIB)
ALP 16.4Kingston SAIND 9.1Indi VIC (v LIB)
ALP 16.5Fraser VICGRN 10.2Melbourne VIC (v ALP)
ALP 16.7Brand WAGRN 10.5Griffith QLD (v LIB)
ALP 16.7Sydney NSW (v GRN)IND 11.0Warringah NSW (v LIB)
ALP 16.9Fremantle WACA 12.3Mayo SA (v LIB)
ALP 17.1Grayndler NSW (v GRN)KAP 13.1Kennedy QLD (v NAT)
ALP 18.0Newcastle NSWIND 20.8Clark TAS (v ALP)


1. Auslan Update - Federal Election Results - 26 May 2022
(Expression Australia)
2. IN FULL: Full coverage of the NSW Election with results, analysis and speeches | ABC News
(ABC News (Australia))
3. Australian election 2022: week one of the campaign with Amy Remeikis
(Guardian Australia)
4. Alex Lum: Secrets of Antony Green: Calculating notional margins for electoral redistributions
(FOSS4G SotM Oceania)
5. Australia Votes - Federal Election 2019 | ABC News
(ABC News (Australia))
6. 2018 South Australian State Election Seminar
(Flinders University)


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