With 16 members elected to the crossbench in the new House of Representatives, drawing up a new electoral pendulum based on the 2022 Federal election result strains the traditionally used two-sided format.
However, I’ve gone with the traditional format with the non-major party seats separated bottom right on the opposition side of the pendulum. However, the expanded size of the crossbench means this group of seats deserves more attention than its bottom of the table position suggests.
Inside this post I provide a post-election pendulum for the House of Representatives, along with some general comments on the overall result.
General Comments on the Results
Before moving on to the new electoral pendulum, I thought it worthwhile making some general comments.
- The nearly complete two-party preferred count appears to be Labor 52.1% Coalition 47.9%, a swing of 3.6%. This is roughly the swing that Labor needed to win based on the pre-election pendulum. The two-party result hides the importance of both the Greens and Independents to the election outcome, the success of both being responsible for the Coalition doing much worse in seat terms (58) than you would expect from a 47.9% two-party preferred vote.
- There were 84 seats that recorded Labor two-party preferred majorities against 67 with Coalition two-party preferred majorities.
- On first preferences the Coalition polled 35.7%, Labor 32.6%, at 68.3% the lowest combined vote for the major parties since two-party politics became the norm in 1910.
- There were 27 seats that did not finish as traditional two-party contests, 20 that recorded Coalition majorities on the alternative two-party preferred count and seven for Labor.
- Only 15 of the 151 electorates were won by candidates recording a majority on first preference votes, eight Labor, four Liberal, two National and one LNP. 136 electorates required some or all preferences to be distributed before the winning candidate achieved a majority of the vote. It is by far the highest number of seats where preference distributions were required.
- Labor won 77 seats, the Coalition 58, Independents 10, Greens four, one Katter’s Australian Party and one Centre Alliance.
- There were 16 seats won by trailing candidates. Seven were won by Labor (Bennelong, Boothby, Gilmore, Higgins, Lyons, Robertson, Tangney), seven by Independents (Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Wentworth), and two by the Greens (Brisbane from 3rd place and Ryan).
- If winners were declared based on first preference simple majority leaders, the Coalition would have won 74 seats and Labor 70 with two Greens, three Independents and one each for Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. Of course, had the election been fought under simple majority rules, it is likely that many voters for third parties might have voted differently knowing they did not have the option of preferences.
- The results after preferences again highlight how much the accrued political advantage of preferential voting has shifted from the Coalition to Labor. Preferential voting was introduced in 1917 to allow electoral co-operation between competing non-Labor parties. Until 1990 it worked consistently in favour of the non-Labor parties. But the 2022 result is the latest to highlight that since 1990 preferential voting has worked overwhelmingly in favour of Labor.
- Queensland was the only state to record a Coalition two-party preferred majority with 54.0%. The state also saw the largest swing to Labor, 4.4%, but Labor lost one seat to the Greens (Griffith) along with two LNP seats that recorded Labor two-party majorities in 2022 (Brisbane, Ryan). The swing to Labor was 4.9% in South-east Queensland and 3.3% in the rest of the state.
- Tasmania was the only state to record a swing to the Coalition, a 1.6% swing though no seats changed hands and Labor’s recorded a two-party majority with 54.3%.
- The swings in other states, noting that counting continues in some seats, were 3.2% to Labor in NSW, 1.5% in Victoria, a huge 10.5% in Western Australia, 3.3% in South Australia, 5.3% in the ACT and 1.3% in the Northern Territory.
- In Victoria, the state swing hides a wide variety of results. Labor recorded large swings in its favour in key seats it needed to retain or gain, but suffered significant swings against it in a string of its own safe seats in northern and western Melbourne.
- The Liberal party suffered a massive rejection in Western Australia, losing Swan, Hasluck, Pearce and Tangney to Labor on double digit swings, as well as Curtin to Independent Kate Chaney. Of the 15 seats that recorded the largest swing to Labor, 12 were in Western Australia. The result in Western Australia was the difference between minority and majority government for Labor Party.
- Support for the Greens rose substantially from 10.5% to 12.3%, the party gaining an extra 300,000 votes in the lower house. This is a vastly greater number than reported by Peter Hartcher in the Sydney Morning Herald on 28 May. In the same article Hartcher stated that Labor had lost 600,000 votes, but the final results show Labor had roughly an unchanged number of votes, though in percentage terms Labor’s vote fell 0.8%.
- Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation rose from 3.1% to 5.0%, but largely due to a near trebling of the number of seats the party contested. In the seats One Nation did not contest in 2019 the party polled 4.0%. In the seats it contested at both elections, the party’s support fell from 8.0% to 6.4%. After Labor, the Coalition and the Greens, One Nation remains the nation’s fourth largest party.
The seats changing party (with margin) were –
- Labor gains from Coalition (10) – Chisholm VIC (0.5), Boothby SA (1.4), Higgins VIC (2.6), Reid NSW (3.2), Swan WA (3.2), Robertson NSW (4.2), Pearce WA (5.2), Hasluck WA (5.9), Bennelong NSW (6.9), Tangney WA (9.5)
- Green gains from Coalition (2) – Brisbane QLD (4.9), Ryan QLD (6.0)
- Green gain from Labor (1) – Griffith QLD (2.9)
- Independent gain from Labor (1) – Fowler NSW (14.0)
- Independent gain from Coalition (6) – Wentworth NSW (1.3), Kooyong VIC (6.4), Goldstein VIC (7.8), North Sydney NSW (9.3), Mackellar NSW (13.2), Curtin WA (13.9) (WA)
- The Coalition lost 18 seats, by state six in NSW, four in Victoria, two in Queensland, five in Western Australia and one in South Australia.
New Electoral Pendulum
The pendulum below sets out the new seats in margin order, the most marginal seats at the top of each list, the safest at the bottom. Labor (Government) seats are shown in the left hand column, Coalition seats at the top of the right-hand column. Independents, Greens and other parties are listed at the bottom of the right hand column, again in ascending margin order.
In 124 electorates the margins are shown in traditional two-party format, either Labor versus Coalition or Coalition versus Labor. The other 27 electorates are shown with a margin for the winning party and the opposing party shown in brackets. (e.g Grayndler is shown with (v GRN) after the name and state indicating a Labor versus Greens margin.) Seats in bold changed party status at the election.
Based on the margins, a swing of around 1% would deprive the Albanese government of its majority.
However, it is almost impossible to calculate a swing needed for the Coalition to return to office. The Coalition needs 18 seats, which assuming all crossbench members are re-elected, means a swing of 6.3%. A gain of 10 seats from Labor on a uniform swing of 3.3% would give the Coalition more seats than Labor though still well short of a majority.
But there are nine crossbench seats on margins under 5%. This includes the six seats the Coaliyion lost to Independents, as well as two seats the Coalition lost to the Greens. Every seat the Coalition wins back from the crossbench is one fewer seats the Coalition needs to win from Labor.
|Labor Seats (77)||Coalition Seats (58)||Margin||Electorate||Margin||Electorate|
|ALP 0.2||Gilmore NSW||LIB 0.2||Deakin VIC|
|ALP 0.9||Lyons TAS||LIB 0.5||Sturt SA|
|ALP 0.9||Lingiari NT||LIB 0.7||Moore WA|
|ALP 1.0||Bennelong NSW||LIB 0.7||Menzies VIC|
|ALP 2.1||Higgins VIC||LIB 1.4||Bass TAS|
|ALP 2.3||Robertson NSW||LIB 1.5||Casey VIC|
|ALP 2.4||Tangney WA||LIB 1.7||Dickson QLD|
|ALP 3.3||Boothby SA||NAT 2.3||Cowper NSW (v IND)|
|ALP 3.3||McEwen VIC||LIB 2.8||Aston VIC|
|ALP 3.3||Paterson NSW||LIB 2.9||Monash VIC|
|ALP 4.0||Hunter NSW||LIB 3.1||Longman QLD|
|ALP 4.6||Parramatta NSW||LIB 3.2||Banks NSW|
|ALP 5.2||Reid NSW||LIB 3.4||Bonner QLD|
|ALP 5.2||Blair QLD||LIB 3.4||Leichhardt QLD|
|ALP 5.8||Shortland NSW||LIB 3.6||Canning WA|
|ALP 5.8||Werriwa NSW||NAT 3.8||Nicholls VIC (v IND)|
|ALP 6.0||Hasluck WA||NAT 3.8||Flynn QLD|
|ALP 6.3||Dunkley VIC||LIB 3.9||Wannon VIC (v IND)|
|ALP 6.4||Chisholm VIC||LIB 4.2||Forde QLD|
|ALP 6.5||Dobell NSW||LIB 4.2||Bradfield NSW (v IND)|
|ALP 6.6||Bruce VIC||LIB 4.3||Durack WA|
|ALP 6.9||Isaacs VIC||LIB 4.3||Forrest WA|
|ALP 7.1||Holt VIC||LIB 4.4||Petrie QLD|
|ALP 7.6||Corangamite VIC||LIB 5.5||Bowman QLD|
|ALP 7.6||Hawke VIC||LIB 6.3||Lindsay NSW|
|ALP 7.8||Macquarie NSW||NAT 6.6||Capricornia QLD|
|ALP 7.8||Richmond NSW||LIB 6.7||Flinders VIC|
|ALP 8.2||Eden-Monaro NSW||LIB 6.9||Groom QLD (v IND)|
|ALP 8.5||Macarthur NSW||LIB 7.0||O’Connor WA|
|ALP 8.6||Wills VIC (v GRN)||LIB 7.0||Hughes NSW|
|ALP 8.7||Cooper VIC (v GRN)||LIB 7.7||Hume NSW|
|ALP 8.8||Swan WA||LIB 8.0||Braddon TAS|
|ALP 8.9||Hindmarsh SA||LIB 8.7||Fisher QLD|
|ALP 9.0||Pearce WA||LIB 8.7||La Trobe VIC|
|ALP 9.1||Rankin QLD||LIB 9.0||Fairfax QLD|
|ALP 9.1||Moreton QLD||LIB 9.3||McPherson QLD|
|ALP 9.4||Solomon NT||NAT 9.7||Calare NSW (v IND)|
|ALP 9.5||McMahon NSW||LIB 9.8||Berowra NSW|
|ALP 10.0||Gorton VIC||LIB 10.1||Grey SA|
|ALP 10.1||Whitlam NSW||NAT 10.1||Hinkler QLD|
|ALP 10.5||Lilley QLD||NAT 10.4||Dawson QLD|
|ALP 10.8||Makin SA||LIB 10.6||Fadden QLD|
|ALP 10.8||Cowan WA||LIB 10.7||Mitchell NSW|
|ALP 11.5||Greenway NSW||NAT 10.7||Page NSW|
|ALP 11.5||Gellibrand VIC||LIB 10.9||Wright QLD|
|ALP 11.6||Oxley QLD||LIB 11.2||Moncrieff QLD|
|ALP 11.9||Adelaide SA||NAT 11.3||Wide Bay QLD|
|ALP 12.1||Bendigo VIC||LIB 11.8||Herbert QLD|
|ALP 12.2||Canberra ACT (v GRN)||LIB 12.4||Cook NSW|
|ALP 12.2||Macnamara VIC||NAT 13.8||Lyne NSW|
|ALP 12.3||Jagajaga VIC||NAT 14.8||Riverina NSW|
|ALP 12.4||Calwell VIC||LIB 16.4||Farrer NSW|
|ALP 12.4||Maribyrnong VIC||NAT 16.5||New England NSW|
|ALP 12.8||Lalor VIC||LIB 16.6||Barker SA|
|ALP 12.8||Corio VIC||NAT 17.8||Parkes NSW|
|ALP 12.9||Spence SA||NAT 19.0||Mallee VIC|
|ALP 12.9||Bean ACT||NAT 20.6||Gippsland VIC|
|ALP 13.0||Ballarat VIC||NAT 22.1||Maranoa QLD|
|ALP 13.5||Chifley NSW|
|ALP 13.7||Franklin TAS||Others (16)|
|ALP 14.3||Hotham VIC||Margin 0.0||Electorate|
|ALP 14.5||Kingsford Smith NSW||IND 1.3||Curtin WA (v LIB)|
|ALP 14.7||Cunningham NSW||IND 1.6||Fowler NSW (v ALP)|
|ALP 14.8||Perth WA||IND 2.5||Mackellar NSW (v LIB)|
|ALP 14.9||Blaxland NSW||GRN 2.6||Ryan QLD (v LIB)|
|ALP 15.1||Watson NSW||IND 2.9||Goldstein VIC (v LIB)|
|ALP 15.2||Burt WA||IND 2.9||North Sydney NSW (v LIB)|
|ALP 15.5||Barton NSW||IND 2.9||Kooyong VIC (v LIB)|
|ALP 15.6||Scullin VIC||GRN 3.7||Brisbane QLD (v LIB)|
|ALP 15.7||Fenner ACT||IND 4.2||Wentworth NSW (v LIB)|
|ALP 16.4||Kingston SA||IND 9.1||Indi VIC (v LIB)|
|ALP 16.5||Fraser VIC||GRN 10.2||Melbourne VIC (v ALP)|
|ALP 16.7||Brand WA||GRN 10.5||Griffith QLD (v LIB)|
|ALP 16.7||Sydney NSW (v GRN)||IND 11.0||Warringah NSW (v LIB)|
|ALP 16.9||Fremantle WA||CA 12.3||Mayo SA (v LIB)|
|ALP 17.1||Grayndler NSW (v GRN)||KAP 13.1||Kennedy QLD (v NAT)|
|ALP 18.0||Newcastle NSW||IND 20.8||Clark TAS (v ALP)|